SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the Southeast, central Texas, Arklatex, and northern Plains. ...Southern MS/AL to FL Panhandle... A large upper trough is present today over much of the eastern states, with a corridor of 30-40 knot mid-level winds extending from AR into the central Gulf Coast region. Ample low-level moisture remains across much of the southeast, but multiple bouts of convection have pushed the main outflow boundary southward into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. Strong afternoon heating will help to establish moderate to strong instability along this axis where re-development of widely scattered strong/severe storms are expected. Weak forcing mechanisms suggest limited coverage of intense storms, but sufficient deep-layer vertical shear and proximity to boundaries may result in isolated supercells capable of hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Southeast GA/Northeast FL... A persistent linear MCS continues to track eastward across southern GA and northern FL. Strong heating ahead of the line has resulted in moderate CAPE values and sufficient westerly flow aloft to pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds for a few more hours until the line moves offshore. Cooler temperatures in the wake of the line should limit the redevelopment of severe storms later today. ...MT/ND... Fast southwesterly flow aloft extends across the northern Rockies and High Plains today. A band of mid/high clouds lies from northern WY into eastern MT and western ND. A consensus of morning model solutions indicate that strong heating along and east of the eastern edge of this cloud cover will result in a corridor of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development. Fast-moving supercell and bowing structures appear likely this afternoon and evening as storms track from eastern MT into western ND. Damaging winds and hail are the main risks. ...Central TX... Hot/humid conditions along the surface dryline over central TX will pose some risk of isolated thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. While coverage of these storms may be quite limited, any storm that forms in the extremely unstable air will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/19/2023
