SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN KS AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... A LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE WRN CONUS. IN RESPONSE...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER CENTRAL NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE..A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST...WHILE A WEAK/DIFFUSE PATTERN PREVAILS E OF THE ROCKIES. ...KS AND VICINITY... A DIFFICULT FORECAST EXISTS THIS PERIOD FOR THE KS/OK VICINITY...AS MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING PRIOR CONVECTION -- AND THUS THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SYNOPTIC/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY -- WILL INFLUENCE SUBSEQUENT DAY 2 CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE NAM FORECASTS AN MCS TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN THE ERN KS/NERN OK VICINITY...REINFORCING A SURFACE WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LINGER OVER NRN OK THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEPICTS WEAKER/LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE GFS MAINTAINS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN KS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY -- GIVEN A MOIST/HEATING SURFACE AIRMASS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE FRONT...THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY -- BUT LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG INSTABILITY AND SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT...THREAT JUSTIFIES INTRODUCTION OF A LOW PROBABILITY SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS -- AS CONVECTION EXPANDS WITH DIURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...WILL CENTER THE SLIGHT ACROSS ERN KS -- BUT READJUSTMENT OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS LOCATION OF EARLIER CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...MID MO VALLEY REGION... WHILE RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AREA SUGGESTS BACKGROUND SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING THAT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB AND VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT MODEST SHEAR...ANY STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...AND THUS -- GIVEN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONCERNS...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST/LOW-TOPPED DESTABILIZATION NEAR PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN OH/WRN PA/WV AREA...AND GIVEN STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME VIGOROUS -- AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET/EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 06/02/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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