SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN CO/WRN KS/NERN NM/TX PNHDL... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. A BAND OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO/AR. THE SOUTHWEST FRINGE OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. A DEEP DRY-ADIABATIC LAYER WILL YIELD HIGH-BASED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN KS AFTER DARK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. ...MT/ID/WY... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER WESTERN ORE/WA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF ID/WESTERN MT AND NORTHERN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWNWARD WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...MO/IL... A RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING PARTS OF MO/IL. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE...SO ONLY LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. ..HART/BOTHWELL.. 06/02/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
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