SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong storm or developing small cluster of storms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of east central New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas through around 8-10 PM MDT. ...01Z Update... A zone of differential surface heating, associated with remnants of old convective outflow, remains a focus for isolated supercell development across east central New Mexico. Modest east-southeasterly near-surface inflow into the updrafts appears to remain characterized by moderately large CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, and this may remain the case for at least another couple of hours in the presence of strong west-northeasterly deep-layer shear. This is occurring near the northeastern periphery of building ridging/rising heights aloft, and it remains unclear when increasing inhibition will begin to suppress convective development. However, it might not be out of the question that a modestly strengthening southerly low-level jet could contribute to at least some further upscale growth before convection weakens later this evening. ..Kerr.. 06/02/2023
