SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the central High Plains vicinity. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... The overall pattern on Thursday is not expected to be too different from Wednesday. However, convection on Wednesday may influence convective potential on Thursday. Furthermore, stronger capping may persist with southward extent into OK/TX compared to further north/northwest. Nevertheless, enhanced west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast to overspread the central High Plains vicinity ahead of a southeastward-developing upper shortwave trough over the Southwest. East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary-layer moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain of CO/southeast WY during the afternoon and shift east/southeast into deeper low-level moisture and along the surface instability axis. Supercell wind profiles will support organized cells capable of large hail, while steep low-level lapse rates foster strong outflow gusts. Low-level moisture should reach further west compared to Wednesday and interact with a weak surface low near the Palmer Divide/Denver vicinity. Modestly enlarged low-level hodographs and effective SRH values around 100-150 m2/s2 suggest a corridor of tornado potential is possible, in addition to hail/wind across parts of eastern CO/far western KS. If confidence in storm coverage increases, severe probabilities may be increased in subsequent outlooks. ..Leitman.. 06/20/2023
