Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to be in place across the Great Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. This feature will likely move eastward into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop beneath the ridge each afternoon. In spite of this, warm mid-level temperatures and limited large-scale ascent may keep convective coverage isolated in the central Plains. Further north in the northern Plains, convective coverage should be greater as several subtle shortwave troughs move through the region. MCS development and severe storms will be possible each day in parts of the Dakotas. However, the models differ widely on potential scenarios. If the models can come into agreement over the next few runs, then a threat area could be considered across the northern Plains during the mid-week. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. as the upper-level ridge moves eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad area of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday and Saturday. The greatest severe potential could be Friday afternoon and evening on the northern edge of the anticyclone from South Dakota eastward to Wisconsin. This would depend upon the upper-level trough being faster, which would bring more large-scale ascent through the north-central states. A slower solution would be less favorable for severe. Uncertainty is substantial at this time. Over the next few days, the models will continue to be assessed for a severe weather scenario late the week.
