SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind-damage and hail will be possible in parts of the Ohio Valley on Friday. An isolated severe threat may also develop in the southern and central Appalachians, and across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the southern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Great Lakes. An associated mid-level jet will translate eastward across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a boundary is forecast to be located from the lower Ohio Valley extending east-southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Model forecasts suggest that an MCS could be ongoing at the start of the period, with the MCS moving eastward across the Ohio Valley relatively early in the day. If this scenario pans out, then a wind-damage threat can be expected along the leading edge of the system. Thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible in the wake of this convective system in the afternoon. Areas that are not impacted by the earlier MCS, could have a greater severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening, with wind damage and isolated large hail as the primary threats. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough will move into the central High Plains on Friday, as mid-level flow ahead of the system remains from the southwest. At the surface, a front is forecast to be located across Kansas. An east-to-west corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be to the north of the boundary across northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska. During the afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop further west in the higher terrain of north-central Colorado, with additional storms forming in the central High Plains. This convection should move eastward into southern Nebraska and northern Kansas during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the axis of stronger instability, where an isolated severe threat is expected develop. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/28/2023
