SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge/anticyclone will remain centered over the northern Plains and central Canada on Sunday. Downstream, an upper trough/low should gradually shift eastward off the coast of New England through the period. Multiple weak mid-level vorticity maxima, acting in combination with terrain influences, should aid convective development across parts of the Sierras/Cascades into the Great Basin, Rockies, and Southwest. Weak shear across these regions should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Multiple remnant MCVs from prior convection, outflow boundaries, and areas of mid-level vorticity should be present over the southern Plains Sunday. A moist low-level airmass should remain over this region, and daytime heating will likely foster weak to moderate instability by Sunday afternoon. Most guidance shows scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms developing through the day from eastern NM into much of TX/OK and adjacent parts of KS. Some of this activity may be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. However, deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally weak, with the possible exception of parts of west TX into deep south TX, closer to an upper-level sub-tropical jet. Have opted to include no severe hail/wind probabilities at this time, rather than outline a broad area of seemingly low severe potential across the southern Plains. An area of greater thunderstorm coverage may develop Sunday afternoon and early evening across the TN Valley and vicinity. Occasional gusty winds may occur with the most robust downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating and the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Still, deep-layer shear is expected to remain rather weak, which should limit updraft organization and overall severe potential. ..Gleason.. 06/03/2023
