SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday from the central and southern Appalachians region westward through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Midwest to the central Appalachians, and south across the Mid-South and southern Appalachians... A complex/potentially segmented cold front is forecast to move across the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys Saturday. With a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front, daytime heating will support strong destabilization across the area. As the mid-level trough shifts eastward, expect thunderstorms to develop/increase across the area during the afternoon. Narrowing down specific areas for more widespread/substantial development remains difficult -- in part due to rounds of convection to occur between now and Saturday afternoon. Still, given the degree of instability, and enhanced deep-layer westerly flow aloft (progged to increase to over 40 kt through the evening in the 850mm to 500 mb layer), potential for damaging winds is evident, along with large hail. While considerable areal uncertainty exists, the greatest potential for higher coverage and intensity appears to exist across the Lower Ohio Valley area at this time, warranting upgrade to 30% wind/ENH risk, primarily for the afternoon and evening time frame. ...Southern High Plains area... As a cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains area, easterly post-frontal upslope flow into the eastern New Mexico vicinity combined moderate late afternoon instability will likely result in isolated storm development. Moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the low-level easterlies will result in ample shear for a few stronger storms, with attendant risk for hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts into the evening hours. ...The Northeast... Modest afternoon destabilization is expected across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region. As a mid-level short-wave trough crosses the area, isolated to scattered storm development is expected, which should peak through the diurnal heating maximum. Presence of moderate mid-level westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft anticipated across this area may support a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail/wind before diminishing through the evening. ..Goss.. 06/30/2023
