Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... The primary feature of interest in the extended range will be an upper trough that is forecast to amplify and move eastward across the central/eastern CONUS from D5/Friday into D6/Saturday. Extended-range guidance has come into better agreement with the timing and placement of this trough, with the GFS/GEFS trending toward the somewhat slower solutions of the other global models. Important differences remain, however, regarding the timing and placement of the intensifying surface cyclone, and the character of the low-level moisture return in advance of the attendant cold front that will eventually sweep through the eastern CONUS. On D5/Friday, an initially slow-moving surface boundary draped from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Southeast is forecast to move northward through the day, as a surface cyclone develops along the boundary and moves northeastward, and a cold front attendant to the cyclone accelerates southeastward by Friday afternoon/evening. Convection will likely develop along the front by afternoon from east TX into parts of LA/MS, and also potentially further east into parts of GA/north FL, as an intensifying low-level jet impinges on that area by late afternoon/evening. While uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization in advance of the front, deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for organized storms, and severe probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlook updates for some portion of the Southeast states. Depending on the timing of the front, some severe potential may persist into the first part of D6/Saturday across parts of FL/southeast GA and the Carolinas, and perhaps as far north as the Mid Atlantic. Predictability regarding the timing of the front remains low at this forecast range, however.
