SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...CNTRL PLAINS... IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MARKEDLY...ON THE ORDER OF 60-90M...ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO AN EXISTING FRONT THAT WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN IA BY 26/00Z. LATEST THINKING IS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL DEEP CONVECTION AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONE SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING TSTMS GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE. GIVEN THE VERY WARM EML IN PLACE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S ACROSS KS. FOR THIS REASON UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON LIKELY STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE WITHIN AN OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO ROOT INTO THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR THEN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED AS DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ...UPSTATE NY... TRAILING PORTIONS OF ON/QC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE THE BORDER REGION OF UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN SPREAD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE. AT THIS TIME IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED ROBUST UPDRAFTS THUS WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5% SEVERE PROBS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 05/23/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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