SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM A CANADIAN LOW INTO NY AND PA DURING THE DAY. WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO EWD INTO THE MIDWEST. TO THE W...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA DURING THE DAY WITH MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -25 C BUT LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN TROUGH...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS STATES. SLY FLOW WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD EARLY ACROSS KS...SHARPENING AND BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE NEB BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT S OF THE FRONT...AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL EXIST OVER CNTRL KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD OVER WRN OK AND TX. ...CNTRL KS...ERN NEB...IA...NWRN MO... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF NEB AND NRN/ERN KS EARLY ON FRI DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AS WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED HAIL STORMS. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE ZONE OF LIFT EXPANDS INTO NEB...WRN IA AND NWRN MO. LATER IN THE DAY... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO CNTRL KS. THE RESULT WILL BE A NARROW ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE UNCAPPED. TIME OF DAY COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST IN AN ISOLATED NATURE ACROSS NERN KS DURING THE EVENING. ...PA/NY... SWLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WEAKLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL PRODUCE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED CELLS WITH HAIL OVER 1.00 INCH DIAMETER. THE GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LARGER INSTABILITY. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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