SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central and southern High Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to feature ridging across the central CONUS, flanked on each side by upper troughing across the western and eastern CONUS. The western CONUS troughing will likely deepen as pair of shortwave troughs rotate through its base. Upper low anchoring the eastern CONUS troughing is expected to gradually progresses eastward across ME. Even with these change, the upper ridging across the central CONUS will persist, resulting in relatively little change to the overall upper pattern throughout the period. At the surface, expansive ridging will extend from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Northeast. Lee troughing will persist across the High Plains, with decent low-level moisture east of this troughing across the Plains and High Plains. This low-level moisture and associated moderate buoyancy is expected to foster another day of afternoon thunderstorm development across the southern and central High Plains. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX Thursday morning, and the evolution of these storms may influence the severe potential later in the day across the southern High Plains. However, the current expectation is for this cluster of storms to continue eastward/southeastward, with quick low-level moisture return in its wake. Afternoon storms development is anticipated across the higher terrain, with these storms then moving into the more buoyant air mass over the lower elevations. Severe threat may extend farther north (i.e. into northeast CO) and farther south (i.e. into more of TX Big Bend region) than in previous days. Expansion into these areas is supported by increased low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy. Primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, but some isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two is also possible. ...Northern High Plains... At least scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated Thursday afternoon across the region as storms move off the higher terrain into the lower elevations of central MT. One or more bowing segments may develop during the evening as storms continue northward/northeastward across central and eastern MT. However, mid-level flow will be relatively modest, likely limiting the wind gust potential. ..Mosier.. 05/24/2023
