SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ONGOING BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND FROM WRN UPPER MI TO E-CNTRL KS ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. NRN PORTION OF BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS /ZERO CAPE IN 00Z GRB RAOB/ WITH THE FRONT SURGING EWD THIS EVENING. STILL...WITH INTENSE DEEP-LAYER S/SWLYS AND RELATIVELY LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A W/E-ORIENTATION AS THIS OCCURS. RICH MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG PER 00Z SGF/OUN RAOBS...WILL SUPPORT RISKS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FARTHER W...A SSWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN WRN/CNTRL OK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ATOP THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE IN CNTRL/ERN KS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS FORMING TOWARDS 12Z...DESPITE 30-60 METER HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB. HOWEVER...A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...SHOULD TSTMS FORM. ..GRAMS.. 05/25/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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