SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL & SRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NNEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS WRN KS WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY. THE MODELS DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SALINA KS AND NORFOLK NEB AT 28/00Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENT. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 250 TO 350 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS WELL. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED LATER IN THE EVENT AS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXTEND NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS FAR NORTH AS MINNEAPOLIS WITH THE THREAT MARKEDLY INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING. ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS SW KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND WEST TX...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT MAINLY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND A CAPPING INVERSION. ...GREAT LAKES... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WHERE THE MODELS FORECAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BENEATH THE RIDGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...SE GA/FAR SRN SC... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FAR NE FL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL AND SOME DESTABILIZATION DUE TO A MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER IN SERN GA AND FAR SRN SC. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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