SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES/UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES... AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A BASAL/SECONDARY PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DIURNALLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WITHIN A BROAD WEAKLY CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG SEEM LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH INTO WV/NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/NEBULOUS LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO EXIST ATOP A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN TX AND OK/SOUTHERN KS ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE NEAR/NORTHEAST OF A HEAT-AIDED SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY NEAR A STALLED BOUNDARY/CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS WESTERN OK/PERHAPS SOUTHERN KS. HERE...THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG AMID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...AMPLE INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH MODERATELY STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CONGEAL/ORGANIZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN SPITE OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGH BASES /ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/. ..GUYER.. 05/28/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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