SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... WHILE GUIDANCE REGARDING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES VARY...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN AMPLIFYING SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OK. GIVEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS... A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WESTERN-PERIPHERAL/SUBSIDENT INFLUENCES OF REMNANT BERYL PROVIDE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION/LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SEVERE TSTMS AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE. ..GUYER.. 05/28/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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