SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND PORTIONS OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX... ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX... WHILE A DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES...00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REFLECT A QUICK AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES/SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS OK/KS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES/HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION /3000+ J PER KG MLCAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK INTO SOUTHERN KS/...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TSTM INITIATION. THAT SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY INITIALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND/OR BY CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK. A SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH/EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MCS/S SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...AND OTHERWISE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS OK/ADJACENT NORTH TX/EVENTUALLY AR WITH DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD/ A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING/PERHAPS OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DIURNALLY INCREASE/MATURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS/SOME MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO CAROLINAS... A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG/SOUTH OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT/MODEST OVERALL BUOYANCY. GIVEN THESE LIMITATIONS...AND UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WESTERN-PERIPHERAL/SUBSIDENT INFLUENCES OF REMNANT BERYL...WILL NOT INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE TSTMS AT THIS TIME. ..GUYER.. 05/29/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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