SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SCNTRL KS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK REGION FROM SWRN NEB TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SRN CURRENT OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED TOWARD THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER AS BROAD HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND 18Z...WITH FAVORABLE LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT ACROSS KS/OK. LARGE SCALE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OK. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE NRN-ERN PLUME OF EML FROM PORTIONS OF KS INTO ERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY BIFURCATE THE OUTLOOK AREA. WHILE IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR WEST STABILIZATION WILL BE OBSERVED...IT APPEARS THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING UPSTREAM ACROSS NWRN TX WILL ALLOW FOR UNOBSTRUCTED MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WRN OK INTO SWRN KS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON INITIATION AS STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THE NAM INDICATES ALONG THE DRYLINE AND AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS THAT WILL BE PARTIAL TO STORM ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION. FOR THIS REASON SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. WHILE IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE NOTED WITH EARLY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH TIME DAMAGING WINDS...ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS ONE OR MORE MCS TYPE STRUCTURES SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...ELSEWHERE... IN THE WAKE OF BERYL SOMEWHAT DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL ALSO SAG SEWD AND ORIENT ITSELF FROM NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WNWWD INTO CNTRL MS. AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD POSE AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE BACKGROUND SUPPORT IT APPEARS DIABATIC HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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