SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THU MORNING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN NY...WRN/CNTRL PA THIS EVENING... ...N-CNTRL CONUS... THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR REMAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THU MORNING. TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FINALLY SUSTAINING THEMSELVES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/EFFECTIVE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NWRN KS NEWD INTO NERN NEB. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY BUOYANT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 00Z OAX/TOP RAOBS. WITH THE REGION LYING ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS...PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL. ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD AID UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A CLUSTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z TOP RAOB SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP EWD INITIALLY. BUT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES...CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN MCS CENTERED OVER ERN NEB WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. FARTHER NE...W/E-ORIENTED CONVECTION ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER SRN MN SHOULD PERSIST AND DEVELOP EWD AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PLAINS INSTABILITY AXIS. STRONG MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS NOTED IN THE 00Z MPX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FOR DISCUSSION ON TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PLEASE SEE MCD 666. ...SWRN NY...WRN/CNTRL PA... TSTM CLUSTER OFF LK ERIE MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING. IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLY FLOW REGIME HAS ENHANCED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHEAR OVERLAPPING THE NERN FRINGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE MIDWEST. 00Z BUF RAOB SAMPLED THESE STRONGER WLYS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT. EVEN WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MAY ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLUSTER SEWD INTO CNTRL PA. BUT AS THE STRONGER WLYS BECOME REMOVED FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 05/03/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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