SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... A LONG FETCH OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM NEB INTO LOWER MI...BUT ITS EXACT PLACEMENT IS COMPLEX DUE TO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONTINUING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FROM PARTS OF NEB/KS/MO/IA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NY. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PLAINS... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORNING CONVECTION OVER IA/MO WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF AMPLE MOISTURE AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OVER IA. NEVERTHELESS...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND WEAK CAPPING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL POSE A THREAT OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN AREA WITH SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WI...AS WELL AS OVER LOWER MI...WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART/GOSS.. 05/03/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
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