SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS SHOULD FAVOR CERTAIN AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...NEW CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THOSE BOUNDARIES WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN UNDISTURBED. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN CNTRL IA...NRN IL AND NRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST WHERE SUPERCELLS HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE DOMINANT STORM MODE IS QUESTIONABLE. AS WINDS VEER AT LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...LINEAR MULTICELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST FROM SRN WI SWWD ACROSS NW IL INTO ERN IA...NRN MO AND FAR ERN KS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND CO-LOCATED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SE KS SWWD ACROSS CNTRL OK SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KT...THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD COMPENSATE...MAKING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT ALTHOUGH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH SSWWD EXTENT IN THE SRN PLAINS DUE TO THE WEAKER INSTABILITY FORECAST ALONG THE DRYLINE WCNTRL TX. ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM ERN AL SEWD ACROSS SRN GA WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/05/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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