SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the Great Plains. Storms with severe wind gusts and hail could also develop in parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level ridge will move slowly across the central U.S. on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, mid-level flow will become more southwesterly across the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle as a cold front sags southward into southern Kansas. A dryline will extend southward from a triple point into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a capping inversion will weaken. Thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the front from southern Kansas southward into northern Oklahoma, and to the east of the dryline in southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Several small clusters or short line segments are expected to form and persist from late afternoon into the evening. Forecast soundings near the front in southern Kansas and to the east of the dryline in western Oklahoma have MLCAPE increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The soundings show moderate deep-layer shear, mainly across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where directional shear and mid-level flow will be strong enough for severe storms. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to exceed 8.0 C/km suggesting that large hail will be likely with the more intense updrafts. Hail could exceed 2 inches in diameter with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage also appears likely with supercells and along the leading edge of multicell line segments. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Southwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place across the central and northern High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope flow is forecast across much of the region. In response, low-level moisture will gradually increase from western Nebraska into eastern Colorado, where surface dewpoints are likely to be in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the High Plains. By afternoon in the High Plains, an instability axis should be in place with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. This combined with about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger rotating cells could produce large hail, and marginally severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... An upper-level trough will move southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will move offshore as a cold front advances southward into North Carolina. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, combined with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow in the mid-levels, should be enough for isolated severe wind gusts. Hail could also accompany the stronger cells. The severe threat is expected to maximize in the mid afternoon as low-level lapse rates become maximized. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2023
