SPC MD 1006

MD 1006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES…PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS…PARTS OF WRN OK…FAR SWRN KS…FAR SERN CO…NERN NM


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS...PARTS OF WRN OK...FAR SWRN KS...FAR SERN CO...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011853Z - 012030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 1930Z AND 2100Z...WITH SVR HAIL/WIND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH BY
2000Z.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT...MODERATE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
NWLY FLOW REGIME...A SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS EXTENDING N-S ALONG
THE CO/KS BORDER ARCS SWWD TOWARD THE CO/NM BORDER SE OF TRINIDAD
CO...WHILE A FRONT LIES FARTHER EAST FROM NWRN KS TO W-CNTRL OK
ARCING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL OK. BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE FRONT IS
BEING MAINTAINED BY DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING OWING TO
PERSISTENT WAA-INDUCED CLOUDS/ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS AND ITS INTERSECTION NEAR A SUB-SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW OVER
FAR SERN CO IS SUPPORTING A NARROW SEGMENT OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ECHOES OVER PARTS OF BACA COUNTY IN SERN CO INTO
CIMARRON COUNTY IN THE OK PANHANDLE AMIDST NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC
0-3-KM LAPSE RATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
AND INVOF A SFC THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING SWD/SSWWD FROM THE SFC LOW.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE SFC TROUGH/LOW AND IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
OVER N-CNTRL NM AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE ANTECEDENT CINH.
AS STORMS MOVE SELY/SSELY INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING
SBCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG /LOCALLY HIGHER/...THE SVR POTENTIAL
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OWING TO THE LACK OF LARGE/SCALE ASCENT AND
ENSUING CINH REDUCTION INHIBITING STORM COVERAGE. SVR HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NERN NM WHICH WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT AND WITHIN THE
REGION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER WEST INTO NERN NM.
ELSEWHERE...STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAIN.

STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IF COLD POOLS MERGE...IN WHICH CASE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WOULD ENSUE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 30F. THESE SPREADS WILL
GREATLY MITIGATE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS CONVECTION BECOMES
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT. HOWEVER...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVATURE IN LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS COMBINED WITH BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE
FRONT...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36520478 36830382 37160256 37570191 37750108 37180041
            36209990 35489949 34719936 34229975 33970051 33880233
            34420398 35470483 36520478

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