SPC MD 1012

MD 1012 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335… FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN KS…NERN NM…WRN OK…THE TX PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...NERN NM...WRN OK...THE TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335...

VALID 012052Z - 012145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF WW
335...AND THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL IS INCREASING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR AND SE
OF A SFC TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT AXIS ARCING FROM WRN KS INTO THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE FROM
TOWERING CUMULUS ONGOING ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z AMARILLO RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
WW AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS PRESENTLY RELATIVELY LESS OVER PARTS
OF W-CNTRL AND SWRN OK INVOF COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES COINCIDING WITH
REMNANT BILLOW CLOUDS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIABATIC
HEATING WEST OF A MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD MAY BOOST INSTABILITY
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE...AND 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF
7-8.5 C/KM COMBINED WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW...SVR HAIL -- SOME POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES -- AND SVR WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED. AS STORMS TRACK SEWD/SSEWD INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
MAY OCCUR WITH MERGING COLD POOLS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE SVR WIND
THREAT WOULD INCREASE.

..COHEN.. 06/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34750299 34550329 34630378 35080408 35260463 35340551
            36110533 36890497 36940307 36950204 37470171 37700143
            37700102 37690066 37790040 37460012 36559997 35909946
            35199944 34789998 34800165 34750299

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1012.html