MD 1018 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL/SOUTH GA INTO NORTH FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southern AL/south GA into north FL and
the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281...
Valid 131942Z - 132145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging winds and large hail will continue to be a threat
with thunderstorms spreading eastward through this evening.
Downstream watch issuance into parts of southeast/coastal Georgia
and north Florida is possible.
DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across
southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle this afternoon.
Moderate to strong instability is present across these areas
along/south of a stationary front. Although mid-level winds do
weaken slightly with southward extent into north FL, area VWPs do
show gradually strengthening mid-level westerly winds to around
30-35 kt. Similar values of deep-layer shear should be enough to
continue supporting a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps
occasional marginal supercells. Both large hail and damaging winds
will continue to be a threat as this convection spreads eastward
over the next few hours. The risk for damaging winds may increase if
additional thunderstorm clustering occurs as low-level lapse rates
steepen further. Based on recent convective trends, additional watch
issuance into parts of southeast/coastal GA and north FL is
possible.
..Gleason.. 06/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31258842 31448802 31798512 31968144 31438117 30908135
30128142 30168306 30668572 30948803 31258842
