MD 1022 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341… FOR PORTIONS ERN CO…WRN KS…NERN NM…OK PANHANDLE…TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS…EXTREME SWRN NEB.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...WRN KS...NERN NM...OK
PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS...EXTREME SWRN NEB.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341...
VALID 022257Z - 030100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND QUASI-MERIDIONAL COMPLEX OF TSTMS
MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO AND NERN NM.
MORGAN/SEDGWICK/PHILLIPS/LOGAN COUNTIES CO HAVE BEEN ADDED TO WW.
NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR MORE OF WRN KS AND
PERHAPS SMALL PART OF SWRN NEB. FARTHER S...OVER TX
PANHANDLE...NERN NM AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION S OF WW...SVR THREAT
IS MORE ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED...AND ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED
IN THAT REGION ATTM.
DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HEAT LOW OVER SERN CO NEAR
LAA...ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH AND JUST N OF WSW-ENE ALIGNED CONFLUENCE
AXIS. WEAK WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS DRAWN FROM BETWEEN
TCC-CAO ESEWD ACROSS CDS AREA...AND WAS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHILE
MOVING N ABOUT 15 KT INTO AMA AREA. 2-HR ISALLOBARS OF 3-7 MB WERE
ANALYZED OVER CORRIDOR BETWEEN CYS-RTN...INDICATING ROBUST
POSTCONVECTIVE COLD POOL.
WAVY BAND OF TSTMS WAS EVIDENT AT 2230Z JUST W OF SNY-CAO LINE...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
PRODUCED MEASURED SVR GUSTS AT SEVERAL OBS SITES IN DEN AREA...AND
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE REINFORCING COLD POOL ALONG/BEHIND GUST FRONT.
NEWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING DURING PAST HOUR OVER SERN
CO...IN MAX OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT RELATED TO COLLOCATED SFC PRESSURE
TROUGH...HEAT LOW AND CONFLUENT WIND-SHIFT LINE. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...ITS COLD POOL
AMALGAMATING WITH THAT SPREADING EWD FROM SRN END OF OLDER MCS.
COMBINED AREA OF CONVECTIVE FORCING THEN WILL FORWARD-PROPAGATE EWD
INTO PORTIONS WRN KS...BEFORE ENCOUNTERING LOWER-THETAE AIR THAT
WILL BE STABILIZING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT. NARROW CORRIDOR OF
ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS IS EVIDENT
IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...MLCAPE INCREASING FROM ABOUT
500 J/KG OVER NERN CO TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE FROM SERN CO TO NW OF
LBB. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MRGL...WITH PEAK EFFECTIVE MAGNITUDES ONLY
AROUND 30 KT...WEAKENING SWD ACROSS W TX AND ERN NM.
..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...
LAT...LON 34230452 35630380 37150318 37930354 39590316 40220341
40360372 41040327 41060180 39130095 38030045 36290075
33800106 34020423 34230452
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1022.html
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