MD 1046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 142029Z - 142200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Recovering air mass near and along an outflow boundary may
serve a focus for storm development late this afternoon. Extreme
buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting
supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central and northeastern TX,
afternoon visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers along a
remnant outflow boundary from previous convection. As the boundary
has modified through the afternoon, extreme instability has
developed (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing to unusually steep mid-level
lapse rates and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. The strong buoyancy
colocated with 60-70 kt of effective shear observed from the 18z FTW
sounding is supportive of potentially intense splitting supercells.
Given the favorable storm mode and extreme cape/shear space, giant
hail (3+ in) hail will be possible with the most intense storms
across north-central and northeast TX. Depending on storm coverage,
some upscale growth later this evening into one or more organized
bowing clusters may also favor a risk for damaging wind gusts. A new
Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 32289796 32759768 33239737 33649648 33759586 33819527
33739475 33469434 33269419 32669410 32159413 32029426
31869462 31579535 31449603 31499666 31549710 31709757
31909782 32289796
