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SPC MD 106


MD 0106 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

Areas affected...Southern GA...Eastern FL Panhandle into northern FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 30...

Valid 251536Z - 251700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 30 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts will remain possible, particularly
along the coast, within the convective line moving across southern
GA, the eastern FL Panhandle, and northern FL. Overall limited
severe potential should preclude the need for a watch downstream
across northern FL.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorm
extending from southwest GA southwestward through the central FL
Peninsula and off the coast at AAF. Individual cells within the line
are moving northeastward at around 35 kt, while the line itself
moves eastward at about 16 kt. This motion takes the northern
portion of line to the edge of Tornado Watch 30 within the next
hour, and the southern portion within the next two hours. 

VAD wind profile at TLH continue to show strong wind fields, with 50
kt recently sampled at 1 km. However, buoyancy within the air mass
remains limited, evidenced by the low storm tops and somewhat
anafrontal structure across much of the line. Convective wind gusts
have also been muted as the line moves through, with surface
observations sampling only modest gusts. Expectation is for this
general trend to continue as it progresses eastward over the next
few hours, limiting the downstream severe potential. 

Even so, given the strong low-level flow, a few stronger gusts and a
brief tornado could still occur, particularly close to the coast.
Overall limited severe potential is expected to preclude the need
for a watch downstream across northern FL, but convective trends
will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 01/25/2023

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29668495 30278464 30698440 31338412 31508364 31318313
            30898285 30288275 29778285 29478315 29478347 29528377
            29588420 29668495 

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