MD 1074 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHEASTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southern MS and southeastern LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304... Valid 151752Z - 151915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds will continue to be a threat with thunderstorms across parts of southern Mississippi and southeastern LA. Some of the hail could be very large (2+ inches). DISCUSSION...Primary severe threat in the short term across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304 will remain tied to an intense supercell across far south-central MS. Additional robust convective development to the south of this supercell is possible, with a few cells recently developing along what appears to be a marine warm front. Modest low-level warm advection with a 25-30 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet may also be aiding this activity. 45-50 kt of deep-layer shear related to southern-stream mid-level jet will continue to organize updrafts, with supercells likely remaining the primary thunderstorm mode. Very strong instability, with 3000-4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE estimated by latest mesoanalysis, along with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large to very large hail threat with any supercell. Severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur given fairly steep low-level lapse rates across this area. With weak large-scale ascent, overall coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain fairly isolated this afternoon. ..Gleason.. 06/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31409067 31368931 30808873 30208944 30489092 31409067
