MD 1096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Areas affected...eastern Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 160625Z - 160900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to persist tonight from the
eastern Florida Panhandle into northern Florida, and a brief tornado
or two cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations across the area indicate a warm
front/theta-e gradient extending from central portions of the FL
Panhandle east/southeastward near the coast. While many stations
over land are reporting dewpoints near 70 F, a few coastal locations
show the very moist tropical air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is
very close to spreading inland. Indeed, multiple buoys confirm
dewpoints in the lower 80s F over the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
which results in very strong instability.
Weak warm advection and minimal CIN is aiding storm formation
currently, mean boundary-layer winds out of the southwest. Although
winds around 850 mb may veer with time, 0-1 SRH is currently
averaging near 150 m2/s2 over land, and periodic mesocyclones have
been observed on radar. Trends will continue to be monitored for a
possible increase in storm coverage.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30008562 30348483 30548442 30568312 30408283 30148269
29858259 29608263 29618271 29338298 29398339 29748371
29998401 29968426 29738458 29468487 29548523 29628540
30008562
