MD 1109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TX…TX HILL COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 1109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Areas affected...Central TX...TX Hill Country
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161948Z - 162145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of very large hail and strong
downbursts are possible across the region this afternoon and
evening.
DISCUSSION...A very warm, moist, and unstable air mass in place
across central TX and the TX Hill Country. Current surface
observations show temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s and
dewpoints in the mid 70s, just to the south of a weak wind
shift/surface boundary that extends from JCT northeastward into the
western portions of the Metroplex. Some deepen cumulus has developed
along this boundary east of JCT and BBD, within a region where
mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2500 J/kg with only limited
convective inhibition remaining.
The lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent casts some doubt
to the overall thunderstorm coverage/longevity, but current trends
suggest at least a few isolated storms are possible. The robust
buoyancy and strong shear in place supports the potential for
splitting supercells, capable of very large hail and intense
downbursts.
..Mosier/Hart.. 06/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30200015 31149920 32059800 32209709 31779667 30849726
30079807 29779851 29509898 29349971 29610020 30200015
