MD 1124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023
Areas affected...southeast Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 171807Z - 172000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to intensify over the
next few hours and move east/southeast off of the higher terrain and
across southeast Colorado. Damaging gusts and large to very large
hail hail will be the primary threats, although a tornado will also
be possible. A watch will be needed shortly.
DISCUSSION...A focused region of large-scale ascent moving east
across central CO will combine with moist southeasterly low-level
flow and contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
higher terrain west of Interstate 25 over the next 1-2 hours. These
storms will move east/southeast across southeast CO where visible
imagery suggests that convective inhibition continues to weaken.
Continued daytime heating and lower 50s surface dewpoints will
combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to result in moderate
MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercell structures
and line segments capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. More
discrete supercells will be capable of very large hail (in excess of
2 inches) given ample CAPE in the -10C to -30 layer. Damaging wind
gusts will become more likely with time as linear structures evolve
with eastward extent.
Convective trends are being monitored and a watch will likely be
needed shortly.
..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37050354 37080401 37230474 37860480 38320477 38650452
38750403 38740353 38650275 38460208 37780204 37470210
37070227 37010281 37050354
