MD 1125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN MISSOURI…INTO CENTRAL IOWA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023
Areas affected...far eastern nebraska...northern Missouri...into
central Iowa.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 171924Z - 172130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in
coverage/intensity this afternoon. Severe hail is expected to remain
the primary threat though isolated damaging winds are also possible.
A weather watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...As of 1920 UTC, early afternoon satellite and radar
analysis showed deepening cumulus/incipient thunderstorms developing
over portions of far eastern NE and western IA. Afternoon heating
ahead of a mid-level vortmax will continue to favor storm
development through the afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE) from area RAP soundings will support a few robust
updrafts. Displaced north of the stronger mid-level flow, vertical
shear is somewhat less favorable for widespread severe storms, but
effective shear of 20-25 kt may still support some organized
multicell and or transient supercell structures. Given the potential
for sustained updrafts with large low-level buoyancy (0-3km CAPE
100-150 J/kg), severe hail and brief funnel clouds will be possible
in the strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible
given the steeper low-level lapse rates from afternoon heating. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible this afternoon.
..Lyons/Hart.. 06/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41789626 41909627 42769590 43119539 43399485 43489451
43389418 43029351 42569316 42099296 41719287 41199290
40899292 40589355 40419440 40359538 40479579 41789626
