MD 1132 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN LA AND THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023
Areas affected...northern LA and the Ark-La-Tex region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172213Z - 180015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible
in the next few hours across northern LA and the Ark-La-Tex region.
DISCUSSION...Congested cumulus and isolated areas of deeper
convective development are currently observed across the Ark-La-Tex
region. A broad effective front is draped from west-northwest to
east-southeast through the area, with temperatures generally in the
mid-/upper-90s and dewpoints around 80 degrees F. These conditions
are contributing to extreme instability with MLCAPE around
5500-6000+ J/kg. As a result, vigorous updraft development could
occur in the next hour or two, which could mature into at least
transient supercell structures given 45-55 kts of bulk shear. Should
this occur, a threat for damaging wind gusts and very large hail
would materialize. Such a scenario is captured in some recent
high-resolution guidance, but storm strength and lifetimes may be
stifled by an approaching mid-level ridge. Ongoing convective trends
will continue to be monitored during the next couple of hours.
..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31209335 31609412 32099470 32599505 33079478 33299424
33229335 32939243 32649175 32179120 31559132 31019170
30969258 31209335
