MD 1153 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana into far
southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 182045Z - 182215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing near the Gulf Coast,
with large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes
possible with any of the stronger storms that can develop. A WW
issuance may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A cumulus field across southern LA into far southern MS
has recently become agitated given several hours of boundary-layer
modification. Rich low-level moisture is being overspread by steep
mid-level lapse rates, supporting 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE. 50-60 kts
of effective bulk shear coincides this strong buoyancy, and backed
southeasterly surface winds, with veering/strengthening with height,
support sizeable curved/elongated hodographs (as shown by the latest
LIX VAD data). As such, the environment supports supercell
development, with large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes all
possible. An outflow boundary associated with a decaying MCS is
drifting westward along the MS coastline, which may serve as a
source for convective initiation soon. As such, trends are being
monitored closely for the need of a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32019153 31989027 31758958 31328902 30958893 30718917
30638977 30829056 31049115 31329158 32019153
