MD 1155 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023
Areas affected...the central FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 182154Z - 190000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible for the next
couple hours across the central FL Peninsula. Localized wind gusts
and small hail would be the primary threats.
DISCUSSION...Isolated cumulonimbi have developed across the central
FL Peninsula within a diurnally driven cumulus field. These updrafts
are percolating in an environment characterized by around 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 15 kts of bulk shear. This environment combined with
rather weak upper-level forcing has yielded transient initiation
attempts thus far (e.g., Marion County). Forcing and bulk shear
should gradually increase throughout the afternoon as the main area
of mid-level flow overspreads the region. However, general
tropospheric flow is expected to remain around 30 kts or lower. This
should limit any severe hazards to areas with stronger localized
forcing, such as along storm-scale outflow boundaries or sea
breezes. If locally stronger updrafts develop, isolated damaging
wind gusts and small hail should be the primary threats.
..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27148228 28158252 29328244 29718201 29678145 29178105
28298066 27498031 26878003 26218008 25918043 25848112
25968172 26548209 27148228
