MD 0117 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023
Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arkansas into western
Tennessee
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 310147Z - 310745Z
SUMMARY...Rain will gradually transition to moderate and locally
heavy freezing rain tonight. Freezing rain rates may approach
0.1-0.2 in/hr at times.
DISCUSSION...As of 01:30 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a broad
area of rain and occasional mixed precipitation ongoing across
portions of central AR. Recent surface observations show surface
temperatures falling to near or below freezing over the last couple
of hours across portions of northeastern AR and far western TN. 00z
RAOBS and SPC mesoanalysis also show a prominent warm nose (+2 to +4
C) driven by moderate low and mid-level warm advection over the Mid
MS Valley. With surface temps falling below freezing, rain should
transition to freezing rain over the next couple of hours as the
main precipitation band shifts north and east. Hi-res model guidance
suggests some banded or weak convective structure may produce
freezing rain rates of 0.1-0.2 in/hr at times. Freezing rain should
continue for several hours overnight with the potential for sleet
and mixed precip later this evening as the boundary layer continues
to cool from strong surface cold advection.
..Lyons.. 01/31/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35639244 35849172 36189057 36408928 36388889 36098851
35728853 35458899 35198983 35119066 35089192 35199256
35639244
