MD 1187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Areas affected...central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211502Z - 211700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms may spread across and
east through south of the Oklahoma City Metropolitan area through
early afternoon. Activity may remain largely sub-severe in the near
term, but intensification of ongoing or new thunderstorm activity is
possible later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Deep-layer mean ambient flow is generally westerly to
west-northwesterly at 10-20 kt across the region. However, due to
pronounced veering of wind fields with height, vertical shear is
strong. Despite this, the southwestern flank of a convectively
generated cold pool has advanced ahead of the more intense
thunderstorm development supporting it.
Southerly near-surface inflow of seasonably moist air into the
updrafts has been maintaining mostly steady intensity to the ongoing
convection, based on recent lightning flash rates and satellite
imagery. However, peak surface gusts associated the cold pool are
generally remaining below severe limits.
While low-level forcing for ascent has been sufficient to overcome
considerable inhibition associated with warm and dry elevated
mixed-layer centered below 700 mb, it seems probable that convection
will remain suppressed in the near-term, as at least weak warming
aloft continues. With boundary-layer warming perhaps countering the
warming aloft, it remains unclear whether convection will undergo
more substantive weakening and dissipation. Any potential for
substantive intensification seems more probable later this afternoon
near or south and east of the Oklahoma City area, when inflow air
reaches maximum CAPE in the peak afternoon heating.
..Kerr/Hart.. 06/21/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36599646 36369623 35289601 34869671 34909757 35319798
35759810 35949801 36089801 36069715 36599646
