MD 1240 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023
Areas affected...Portions of far eastern ND into northern MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241910Z - 242115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes may gradually increase this
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...19Z surface observations and recent visible satellite
imagery show a low centered over southeast ND. A warm front extends
eastward from this low across parts of northern MN. Filtered daytime
heating with some cloud breaks has allowed surface temperatures to
generally increase into the mid 70s to low 80s along/south of the
front in MN. Additional heating this afternoon should encourage
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop over the next couple of
hours near the warm front. Although located just north of the warm
front, recent VWPs from KMVX show enhanced easterly low-level flow
gradually veering to southeasterly with height through mid levels.
Resultant 100-150 m2/s2 of effective bulk shear, greater near the
surface low in far eastern ND and northwest MN, should foster
low-level updraft rotation with any low-topped thunderstorms that
can form this afternoon. A few tornadoes appear possible in this
regime as convection develops and crosses the warm front with time,
along with isolated hail and gusty winds. It is not clear how many
robust thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and the spatial
extent of the severe threat appears rather confined. But, trends
will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance over the next
couple of hours.
..Gleason/Grams.. 06/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 46399664 46789728 47159697 47449616 47489492 47249395
46819355 46349367 46179468 46189568 46399664
