MD 1242 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023
Areas affected...Parts of Mid-Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242001Z - 242200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible in
southeastern South Dakota. A watch is not expected this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection has developed on the leading edge of a
shortwave perturbation in south-central South Dakota. This activity
is currently within modest moisture (dewpoints around 60 F), but
will continue to encounter greater moisture/buoyancy (near 70 F
dewpoints) as it moves toward the IA/MN/SD border region. Long,
straight hodographs will favor at least marginal supercell
structures. Temperatures aloft are cold enough to support marginally
severe hail (primarily 1-1.5 inches). Isolated damaging winds may
also occur. A watch is not expected this afternoon as coverage
should remain quite limited. It is possible, however, that some
intensification will occur later in the afternoon when storms
encounter a better environment.
..Wendt/Grams.. 06/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42819941 43379958 43969901 44309730 43949624 43089613
42539640 42389676 42819941
