MD 1247 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023
Areas affected...Portions of western and west-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242331Z - 250130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected this
evening. A few instances of damaging downburst winds and or
marginally severe hail are possible. Though, uncertainty on storm
coverage and severity suggest a weather watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2325 UTC, early evening radar and satellite
imagery showed high-based cumulus/thunderstorms developing along the
dryline in West TX. Very hot temperatures 100+ F have allowed for
deep mixing of the boundary layer with cloud bases near or slightly
above 3 km AGL. Steep low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy will
support a few stronger updrafts this evening as isolated storms
develop. Hi-res guidance suggests a few stronger storms may persist
for a couple of hours this evening within the well-mixed air mass
across western/west-central TX. Vertical shear is not overly strong
at 25-30 kt, but is sufficient for a few organized multi-cell
storms. Deep inverted-v structures will favor stronger downdrafts
potentially capable of isolated damaging gusts. Marginally severe
hail may also be possible with the deeper and robust updrafts. Given
the isolated nature of the expected storms and the lack of greater
forcing for ascent, the severe risk is likely to remain isolated.
Convective trends will be monitored, but a weather watch is
unlikely.
..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30920109 30840156 30760221 30930232 31160237 31620227
32960135 33710041 33689927 32919872 31569929 30990084
30920109
