MD 1257 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN IN…FAR NORTHERN KY…WESTERN/CENTRAL OH…AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023
Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern IN...far northern
KY...western/central OH...and far southeastern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 251946Z - 252115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for tornadoes, very large hail, and
significant damaging winds will increase this afternoon as
thunderstorms spread eastward. Tornado Watch issuance will be
needed.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed this afternoon
across IN, moving eastward towards western OH and vicinity. Very
large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter has been observed with the more
robust supercells, and the threat for very large hail should
continue in the short term. The airmass across western OH is still
destabilizing in the wake of earlier convection across KY. But with
strong heating now occurring, along with a moist low-level airmass
already in place, sufficient instability to maintain severe
thunderstorms will likely exist into at least central OH. The
tornado threat should gradually increase over the next few hours as
a 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreads this region, and
as low-level hodographs lengthen and become more curved.
Severe/damaging winds, with some potential for significant (75+ mph)
gusts, will also be a concern as supercells merge into clusters and
develop eastward in a strong deep-layer shear environment. Tornado
Watch issuance will be needed soon to address this increasing severe
threat.
..Gleason/Grams.. 06/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 39088529 40018477 41948420 41938343 41478259 39968256
38928300 38618348 38708505 39088529
