MD 1262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WY…FAR NORTHEASTERN CO…AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern WY...far northeastern
CO...and the NE Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252138Z - 252345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two is possible this
afternoon/early evening. Marginally severe hail and locally severe
gusts are the primary concerns.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convective initiation is underway along the
higher terrain in southeastern Wyoming this afternoon -- aided by
low-level upslope flow and eroding MLCINH. While weak large-scale
ascent and marginal buoyancy limit confidence in storm coverage and
longevity, around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
long/straight hodograph) will conditionally support splitting
supercell structures. Isolated strong/severe gusts and marginally
severe hail could accompany any persistent/organized storms that
develop over southeastern WY, far northeastern CO, and the NE
Panhandle through this evening.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40630433 40820494 41400519 42070511 42370463 42330371
41590301 40890317 40630433
