MD 1272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AL
Mesoscale Discussion 1272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023
Areas affected...central and southern MS into southwestern AL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 260229Z - 260400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms across central MS and southeastern AR may
continue into southern MS and southwest AL later tonight, with a
risk for damaging winds and some hail. A new watch is possible.
DISCUSSION...Across portions southern MS and southwest AL, a broad
unstable warm sector remains in place this evening ahead of a large
MCS over the mid MS Valley. The 00z JAN RAOB is unstable with 2400
J/kg of MLCAPE and only slight inhibition showing. Though displaced
south of the stronger vertical shear, some increase in mid-level
flow will likely support 35-40 kt of effective shear later this
evening. Upstream, the ArkLaMiss MCS has shown a slow downtrend in
lightning intensity indicating some possible weakening with the
onset of nocturnal cooling. Based on current observational and
hi-res guidance trends, it is unclear how much additional weakening
will take place before storms exit the southern portions of WW385 in
the next 2 hours. With the downstream air mass still largely
unstable, ongoing severe storms may continue to pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts and some hail into the overnight hours.
Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance
this evening.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...SHV...
LAT...LON 32749209 32619021 32548894 32458870 31818805 31238801
31038850 31118952 31469045 32229190 32749209
