MD 1279 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA…FAR SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Areas affected...Central/Southern LA...Far Southwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261251Z - 261445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line across northern LA is expected to
continue southward into central LA. Some threat for damaging gusts
may accompany this line, and trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster across northern LA has
shown a trend toward more southward forward propagation over the
past hour. Updrafts within this cluster remain strong and several
near-severe gusts were measured in the SHV vicinity as the line
moved through. Forecast soundings downstream into more of central LA
show a notable pocket of warm and dry conditions within the low to
mid-levels. Consequently, mesoanalysis estimates greater convective
inhibition across central LA than in areas farther north. As such,
there is some question to how this cluster evolves as it moves into
this less favorable air mass. However, given the ample low-level
moisture, this convective inhibition will begin to decrease even
under limited daytime heating. Convective trends will be monitored
closely for potential watch issuance later this afternoon.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30969339 31289253 31329073 30569044 30379217 30429330
30969339
