MD 1283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Areas affected...portions of central and southern Georgia into the
Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261759Z - 262030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase through the
afternoon, with a few damaging gusts/instance of large hail the
primary concerns. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating of a moist boundary layer is
supporting surface temperatures to exceed 90 F amid 70+ F dewpoints.
Mixing of this boundary layer is resulting in 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse
rates, over 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE/MUCAPE, and the development of a
cumulus field. Convective initiation is already evident along the
Thomas/Brooks County, GA border, and more storms are expected to
initiate and intensify through the afternoon. The stronger buoyancy
will support updrafts intense enough to foster brief damaging
gust/large hail potential. However, weak winds throughout the
troposphere will limit vertical shear and associated storm
organization potential. Therefore, mainly pulse cellular convection
is expected, and a few multicellular clusters may form. A few
instances of damaging gusts/large hail may accompany the stronger
storms. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a
WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30278350 30198385 30278416 30708430 31488425 32418396
33358346 33938298 33828237 33228183 32338152 31538160
30918194 30668249 30278350
