MD 1288 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST/COASTAL GA…COASTAL/CENTRAL SC…AND FAR SOUTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Areas affected...Portions of far southeast/coastal
GA...coastal/central SC...and far southern NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 262055Z - 262230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for signs of increasing
thunderstorm coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently formed in far
southeast/coastal GA in a weak low-level confluence regime, with
other towering cu also developing in recent visible satellite
imagery. Around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present downstream into
coastal/central SC and far southern NC, with a very moist low-level
airmass in place. Weak surface winds gradually increase through the
boundary layer to around 30 kt around 2-3 km AGL based on recent
VWPs from KCLX/KLTX. This region is on the southern fringe of
enhanced mid-level westerly winds associated with an upper
trough/low centered over the Great Lakes. Even so, around 25-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster some organization with any
convection that can form and be sustained. If robust convection can
develop, a mix of multicells and marginal supercells, with an
associated hail/damaging wind threat, appear possible.
High-resolution guidance shows varying solutions regarding the
number of thunderstorms which may develop across this area. Trends
will be monitored for signs of increasing thunderstorm
coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch issuance.
..Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 32688195 33518119 34347924 33877852 33097916 32028086
32688195
