MD 1290 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO INTO THE WESTERN OK/TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Areas affected...portions of southeastern CO into the western OK/TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262255Z - 270100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Developing high-based storms may pose a risk for isolated
damaging gusts and small hail this evening. Given isolated storm
coverage, a WW is not expected.
DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed initial updrafts were deepening across portions of the
southern High Plains. Warm temperatures along a diffuse dryline have
removed most inhibition from the higher terrain to the west. Some
inhibition still remains farther east and may slowly diminish
tonight. Isolated and high-based storm development is possible
across the southern High Plains over the next couple of hours.
Vertical shear varies intensity with portions of southeastern CO
supporting 40+ kt and some potential for storm organization and
supercells. However, much of warm and well mixed air mass farther
south remains weakly sheared. With T/TD spread of 25-30+ degrees,
damaging downbursts appear to be the primary threat, though some
hail is possible if a sustained high-based supercell is able to
become established. Given the weak broad-scale forcing, storm
coverage should remain isolated and a WW appears unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35220399 36650390 37670284 37680192 37250156 35900193
35050238 34370277 33800309 33340339 33370380 33630399
35220399
