MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Areas affected...portions of eastern PA and western NJ and southern
NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270250Z - 270345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of severe storms will remain capable of
isolated strong gusts as storms continue to slowly weaken this
evening. A downstream watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 0240 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
of thunderstorms ongoing across northeastern DE and far eastern PA.
Over the last hour these storms have produced occasional
strong/damaging wind gusts, with a measured gust to 42 mph at KILG.
A slow downtrend in convective intensity has been noted over the
last 30-45 minutes with the loss of diurnal heating. This general
weakening trend is expected to continue as the boundary layer cools
and MLCINH exceeding -150 J/kg was noted on the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. However, occasional strong gusts will remain possible
as storms continue across far eastern PA and western NJ over the
next hour. Given the weakening trend a downstream watch into
southern NY is unlikely.
..Lyons.. 06/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39517569 39617587 39677589 40287595 40447590 41207498
41287483 41297422 41177379 41007364 40797362 40557372
39977428 39797451 39717461 39577503 39517569
